Israelis will vote on October 27 in the first parliamentary elections since the October 7 attack, in a pivotal moment that will serve as a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu's rule and the increasingly hardline right-wing nationalist identity of the country.
The shock of the deadliest attack in Israel's history, which sparked the war in the Gaza Strip, remains palpable throughout the Jewish state. Posters bearing images of the victims are ubiquitous, and carrying weapons in public has become a common sight.
Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, is seeking a new mandate from voters after leading the country into multiple conflicts in recent years. The Likud party leader has pursued wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, and expanded Israeli control in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights, all under the banner of "changing the Middle East."
The ongoing war in Gaza, with its massive destruction of the Strip and a humanitarian crisis bordering on famine, has severely impacted Israel’s international image, particularly in Western countries that have long been among its closest allies. This has even led to the International Criminal Court issuing an arrest warrant for Netanyahu.
While the objectives of the Gaza war enjoyed broad domestic support, its repercussions have exacerbated political divisions and strengthened the influence of Netanyahu’s far-right allies, who seek to reshape Israel as a Jewish state with a religious-nationalist character.
“I truly believe that this election is about the future of the state in the literal sense,” says Gideon Rahat, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Israel Democracy Institute.
In recent years, Netanyahu’s government has intensified settlement activity in the occupied West Bank, where armed settlers, supported by the far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, have carried out repeated attacks on Palestinians, with limited intervention from the authorities.
Rahat adds, "A state that doesn't have a monopoly on the use of force is a failed state."
Netanyahu, who turns 77 on October 21, has served as prime minister for more than 19 years, intermittently. He returned to the position in December 2022, forming a coalition with previously marginalized hardline nationalist parties, creating what is considered the most right-wing government in the history of the Jewish state.
While facing corruption charges that could lead to his trial, Netanyahu launched judicial reforms that, in the months leading up to the Palestinian attack, sparked one of the largest waves of protests in Israel's history.
"Everyone in Israel has an opinion about Netanyahu," says Alon Yakter, a professor of political science at Tel Aviv University. "People either hate him or love him."
He adds, "If you want to know who people will vote for, you first have to ask them how they feel about Netanyahu."
Opposition to the person, not his policies
The camp seeking to oust Netanyahu is led by an informal alliance of parties united primarily by their rejection of him personally.
According to opinion polls, former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot stands out as his most prominent rival. He is seen as Netanyahu's antithesis in terms of political style, seeking to unify the centrist movement rather than attract a party base, but he lacks the prime minister's oratorical skills.
Eisenkot and other opposition leaders have focused their campaign on Netanyahu's responsibility for failing to prevent the October 2023 offensive.
The Gaza war directly affected Eisenkot, as his son was killed in the fighting, in contrast to Netanyahu's son Yair, known for his controversial social media activity.
If elected prime minister, Eisenkot, whose family is of Moroccan origin, would become the first Sephardic prime minister, whose roots trace back to the Middle East, North Africa, and the Iberian Peninsula.
Despite its criticism of Netanyahu, the opposition did not reject his decision to go to war outright. Instead, it focused on domestic social issues, such as the close alliance between Netanyahu and the ultra-Orthodox parties, and the exemption of yeshiva students from military service—a point of contention given Israel's repeated need to call up reservists since the outbreak of the war.
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett pledged to abolish all exemptions, warning that social divisions were pushing Israel toward "slow suicide."
- The Appeal of Hardline Rhetoric -
A recent poll showed that only 21 percent of Israelis identify as left-wing or center-left, indicating a shift in society toward the right.
Despite criticism of Netanyahu's failure to prevent the October offensive, some believe the government has restored stability.
Although Israelis were killed in attacks by Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, rocket attacks from Gaza ceased as Israel continued its operations in the Strip.
The economy also saw significant growth, with the technology and defense sectors continuing their boom and the stock market indices rising.
Neriah Yarkhi, a 19-year-old barber from Bat Yam near Tel Aviv, says he will vote for the far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who advocates for the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza.
"If Gaza were ours," Yarkhi explains, "they wouldn't have anywhere to launch attacks, and the massacre wouldn't have happened."
Netanyahu sought to capitalize on international criticism of his handling of the Gaza war in his campaign. His Likud party displayed posters of foreign politicians criticizing the government's policies, accompanied by the slogan, "They want to defeat Netanyahu... Don't let them win."
He repeatedly emphasized that he would not form a coalition with parties representing Arab citizens, who make up about one-fifth of Israel's population, despite expectations of a high voter turnout among them.
If the results are close, as the polls predict, forming a government could take weeks or even months.
Uriel Reichman, a former minister and member of parliament and founder of Reichman University, warns that Netanyahu's victory could push Israel down a path similar to that of countries whose elected leaders consolidated their power by appointing officials based on personal loyalty.
He says, "Experience shows that once such a system is established, it becomes extremely difficult to dismantle."
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