China's inauguration this week of a joint air base in Laos, its first outside its borders, sends a message from Beijing about its expanding military presence, analysts say.
Beijing has long sought to bolster its influence in the Asia-Pacific region, competing with Washington and its allies for key shipping lanes and seabed resources. It has also expanded its military presence, particularly in the South China Sea, over which it claims sovereignty for most of the territory.
Under President Xi Jinping, China, the world's second-largest economy after the United States, has sought to modernize its military, increasing defense spending and intensifying pressure on self-governing Taiwan, which it considers part of its territory and has vowed to annex, even by force.
Under now, China's overseas military installations have been mostly naval bases. However, on September 30, China and Laos inaugurated a "Joint Aviation Training and Support Center" at Ban Ki-moon Air Base, north of Vientiane.
Joshua Kurlanzik, a Southeast Asia expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, says this center is "China's first overseas air base."
He told AFP that China is likely to establish more such bases in the region and in other friendly countries in the future.
He says that China "won't build one base in Laos and then stop."
China and Laos, both governed by communist regimes, explained that the new center aims to train Laotian Air Force pilots.
The Chinese Ministry of Defense added that the facility will be maintained "by both sides to ensure normal operations," stating that the site is not directed against any third party.
Security affairs researcher Colin Koh says that China is "trying to demonstrate its ability to expand its influence in the realm of defense diplomacy," at least with "receptive countries."
Training pilots from China, Laos' largest creditor, will require the deployment of military assets, including transport aircraft and modern fighter jets. According to Koh, this represents a shift "from training to a military presence."
- "Under the guise of training" -
Despite the rivalry between the two superpowers, China's military spending is only about a third of that of the United States, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Its military footprint abroad is also minimal compared to Washington, which maintains hundreds of bases worldwide.
China inaugurated its first overseas base in 2017 in Djibouti, a strategically located East African country near the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The base has since expanded to include a sophisticated signals facility, prompting France and the United States to consider relocating their bases to avoid Chinese eavesdropping, according to Kurlanzik.
China has also funded the development of the Ream naval base in its ally Cambodia, located on the Gulf of Thailand. The two countries inaugurated a joint logistics and training center there last year.
Washington says the base, originally built in part with U.S. funding, could give Beijing a strategic foothold not far from the South China Sea. While two Chinese anti-submarine frigates have been docked there for extended periods, U.S. and Japanese ships have also visited the base since its redevelopment.
In contrast, the new facility in Laos is likely to be used only by the host country's and China's militaries, according to Koh.
He explains that the facility could be a convenient "stopover" for Beijing's air force, and Chinese personnel might be stationed there. "We cannot rule out the deployment of combat assets to the area under the guise of training the Laotian air force," he adds.
Neither side has disclosed details about personnel or military equipment at the site.
The United States and its regional partners, such as Vietnam and Thailand, are likely to monitor any signs of a military buildup.
The U.S. Department of Defense said last year that Beijing may have considered establishing military facilities in about 20 countries, mostly in Africa and Asia. Laos was not on that list.
For his part, Asian military affairs expert Carl Thayer cautions against overestimating the importance of the new facility, explaining that the Ban Kyun site can currently only handle light aircraft and military training planes.
He believes it is unclear whether any Chinese military presence in Laos will be permanent or well-equipped.
"There is Chinese progress... but there is no crisis at the moment," he says, explaining that the new facility in Laos "is not Djibouti, it's not Ream (in Cambodia), but it represents a change."
For underdeveloped Laos, the new facility provides military training, equipment, financial incentives, and, most importantly, stronger ties with Beijing.
"The benefit for Laos is that it keeps China satisfied," says Kurlanczyk.
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