An international study obtained exclusively by AFP on Monday revealed that more than 22 million people, including a large number of children, could die by 2030 from preventable causes as a result of cuts in foreign aid by the United States and European countries.
These findings update a study conducted earlier this year that focused solely on the consequences of US President Donald Trump's decision to cut foreign aid, particularly the dismantling of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), and predicted 14 million deaths as a result of the US action.
The new study takes into account all reductions in official development assistance, following aid cuts by countries such as the United Kingdom, France, and Germany to developing nations.
"This is the first time in 30 years that France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States have all cut their aid simultaneously," Gonzalo Fanjol, one of the study's authors from the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), told AFP.
He added, "European countries are not comparable to the United States, but when considered collectively, the blow to the global aid system is enormous. It is absolutely unprecedented."
The findings of the study, conducted by Spanish, Brazilian, and Mozambican researchers, were published Monday in The Lancet Global Health journal and are awaiting peer review.
The study is based on data showing that aid has historically contributed to reducing mortality, particularly through efforts to prevent HIV, malaria, and tuberculosis.
In a worst-case scenario based on massive budget cuts, the new study projects 22.6 million additional deaths by 2030, including 5.4 million children under the age of five, compared to a scenario where the situation remains unchanged.
A more moderate reduction in foreign aid, however, would result in 9.4 million additional deaths, according to the study.
- "An Urgent Warning Sign" -
Shortly after taking office, Trump slashed US foreign aid by more than 80%, driven by billionaire Elon Musk.
He dissolved the US Agency for International Development (USAID), the world's largest aid agency, after it had distributed nearly $35 billion in aid during fiscal year 2024.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that this aid did not serve the core interests of the United States, noting in particular that some recipient countries had voted against the US at the United Nations.
In his address to Congress, Rubio denied that the US aid cuts had caused any deaths and accused critics of the decision of being beholden to an "industrial complex of NGOs."
Instead of trying to fill the gap, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany also reduced their aid due to their own budget constraints and increased defense spending following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Among the major donor countries, Japan has maintained relatively stable aid levels over the past two years.
In addition to the immediate suspension of some aid programs, the study indicated that these cuts would have a devastating impact by dealing a blow to public policies "laid out with painstaking effort over decades of international cooperation."
Fangol stressed the need for countries to eventually become less dependent on international aid, particularly for funding the fight against HIV.
"The problem is the speed and brutality of this process," he said.
The study's lead author, David Rasella, noted that the Trump administration had pledged $20 billion in aid to Argentina.
He emphasized that development aid "is not huge on a global scale," adding that policymakers "are changing budgets without a real understanding of how many lives are at risk."
The study was funded by the Rockefeller Foundation and the Spanish Ministry of Research.
A spokesperson for the New York-based charity said, "This data is a wake-up call for the entire world."
0 Comments