Cancer deaths have increased dramatically worldwide over the past quarter century and could exceed 18.5 million by 2050, according to a study published Thursday, calling for enhanced prevention and treatment, particularly in less developed countries.
Despite advances in treatment and efforts to reduce risk factors, the number of new cancer cases has doubled since 1990, reaching 18.5 million in 2023, while the number of deaths has risen by 74% to 10.4 million, according to the study published in The Lancet and conducted as part of the Global Burden of Disease Initiative.
These estimates, which cover 204 countries and territories and 47 cancer types or groups, are among the most accurate studies in the field, although their results remain subject to considerable uncertainty. For 2023, the scientists estimate that the number of new cases will range between 16.4 and 20.7 million, while the number of deaths will range between 9.6 and 10.9 million.
The majority of patients live in low- or middle-income countries.
Breast cancer was the most commonly diagnosed cancer in 2023, but cancers of the trachea, bronchus, and lung were the leading causes of death.
Without adequate action and funding, the number of new cancer cases worldwide could rise by nearly 61% over the next 25 years, reaching 30.5 million in 2050, while the number of annual deaths is expected to rise by nearly 75%, reaching 18.5 million.
Although this scenario remains the most likely, the researchers indicated that the number of new cancer cases in 2050 could range between 22.9 and 38.9 million, while deaths could range between 15.6 and 21.5 million.
After adjusting for age, the scientists concluded that the increase in cancer cases and related deaths would be primarily due to population growth and aging.
However, more than four in ten cancer deaths in 2023 (41.7%) are still attributed to modifiable or preventable risk factors, particularly smoking, along with unhealthy diet, excessive alcohol consumption, high blood sugar, and other behavioral and environmental factors.
The scientists emphasized that prevention alone is not enough and must be complemented by early diagnosis and effective treatments. They called for increased efforts to reduce inequalities and increase funding.
Despite its critical importance for health policymakers, the study has some limitations, according to its authors. For example, reliable data are not available in some countries, and it did not take into account the impact of the pandemic or recent armed conflicts.
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